Public Transit Safety Measures Hope To Help Commercial Real Estate Reopen

Since the start of the pandemic, public transportation networks have experienced precipitous drops in ridership, approaching 85% in cities like New York, Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, as social distancing requirements and office closures brought daily commuting to a halt. Public transit provides a critical connection between residential and commercial real estate spaces, though, so as offices, stores and restaurants reopen, it’s worth considering whether riding mass transit actually increases the risk of contracting COVID-19.

When the pandemic hit, more than a year ago now, there was understandable concern about getting on a crowded train. A wide range of in-person activities were halted out of an abundance of caution while authorities studied the virus and tracked its spread. However, suggestions to avoid public transit were related to general guidance about avoiding crowds, but not to any outbreaks that occurred within transit systems.

With an entire year of research and experience behind us, we now know how to ride transit safely. As long as a train, car or bus allows for around 6 feet of separation between riders, who are masked, and the system has frequent exchange of fresh air, then transmission of the virus is very unlikely.

As decisions are made about offices and stores reopening, public transit should be considered a safe option for consumers and workers to get from one place to the next.

In the spring of 2020, mass transit systems first implemented “administrative controls” such as new spacing and boarding requirements to combat the spread of COVID-19. But by the summer, recommendations evolved as an increasing body of evidence pointed away from contaminated surfaces as a primary cause of spread, and instead toward poorly ventilated indoor spaces. The risks of “microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in air,” released “during exhalation, talking, and coughing,” became the primary concern of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other agencies.

Key Strategies: Masking and Ventilation. This form of spread sounded scary — scientists were essentially calling the virus airborne — but it actually meant that with proper air ventilation, indoor spaces could be safer than originally thought. According to a modeling effort spearheaded by Jose-Luis Jimenez and his team at University of Colorado, Boulder, this “aerosol” transmission is easily combatted by masking and ventilation, meaning that public transit and outdoor activities could be safe with proper controls.

Buses and trains already have high rates of air exchange: buses have operable windows and trains already maintain sophisticated ventilation systems as part of operating underground. For instance, the Philadelphia region’s SEPTA transit system was already designed to exchange air every 2 to 4 minutes before the pandemic, a rate well beyond the current recommendations from health officials that restaurants circulate outside air once every hour. Amtrak also reports that its trains exchange air every 4 to 5 minutes.

The Results Are In: Mitigation Works. Throughout the summer, cities across the country adopted mask mandates for indoor spaces, which applied to all riders on public transit systems. Jimenez’s model predicted that with frequent air exchange, space between riders and universal masking, the risk of viral transmission on a bus or train was essentially zero. Additional research has continually supported Jimenez’s model.

The following studies from around the world conducted last year found that neither clusters of cases nor outbreaks of the coronavirus could be linked to public transportation usage:

• In Japan, a country known for its crowded commuter trains, there were no clusters of infections on commuter trains, according to Science.

• If the virus spread more easily on mass transit, then it would have spread more so in Hong Kong, a dense city with ridership that stayed relatively high during the pandemic, The Atlantic reported.

• Scientific American reported that, with physical distancing and mask requirements in place, public transit is not a source of transmission.

• Public health authorities in Paris conducting contact tracing found that none of 386 infection clusters was linked to the city’s transit system, reported the New York Times.

• In the U.S., ridership was not even correlated with viral spread in places with large outbreaks like New York City, according to the American Public Transportation Association.

In October 2020, the CDC finally updated its guidance regarding COVID-19 spread to recognize aerosol transmission and clarify that the virus does not easily spread via surfaces. In December, another model of viral spread during indoor activities supported Jimenez’s findings. A team of researchers at MIT predicted that if 25 riders, all wearing masks properly, are on board a subway car in New York City and one of them is infected, it would take more than 15 hours for the virus to pose a risk to the rest of the passengers.

A recent survey of New York City employers by The Partnership for New York City found that employers expect around 45% of their employees to return to the office by September 2021, and 81% of those employees will rely on public transportation for their commutes. The majority of respondents said they would support a hybrid work model divided between the office and remote work, but 22% of employers said they would require employees to return to the office full time.

In a PWC survey of executives and office workers, 29% of employers believe that a minimum of 3 days in the office is necessary for maintaining company culture, while another 39% believe 4 or 5 days is necessary.

The Partnership survey found that smaller companies are recalling their workers to the office more quickly — 20% of workers at companies with fewer than 500 employees have returned to the office while only 8% have returned at companies with more than 1,000 employees.

Although public transit ridership stayed at historic lows throughout the fall, it is slowly but steadily rising. New York City officials currently predict that by the end of 2024, about 85% of riders will have returned, and with more than $30 billion in stimulus funds, major public transit systems across the country will be fiscally sound until then.

As office employers take a stab at crafting their hybrid work schedules and beckoning workers back in person, do not count public transit out. Just as vehicular traffic has diminished in the pandemic, there are also fewer crowds than ever on our nation’s public transit systems.

Although mask mandates are being lifted in May under the President Joe Biden administration, masks will still be required on public transit systems for the time being.

Taking transit back to the office is not only safe, but for those used to riding in crowded pre-pandemic rush hours, riding a bus or train with only a few passengers could feel like a luxury.